Chapter 01 of 17
Technical vs. Fundamental
Both approaches try to anticipate where price goes next; they simply look at different evidence. Fundamental analysis investigates the causes of a move, the economy, rates, output, earnings. Technical analysis studies the effects, by reading price and the statistics generated by market activity.
Neither is complete on its own. Fundamentals tell you what could move a market. Technicals tell you when and at what level it has moved, and where the risk sits if you are wrong.
Chapter 02 of 17
Basics of the Fundamentals
Fundamental analysis values an asset from the forces acting on it: the health of the economy, the cost of borrowing, production, corporate earnings and the quality of management.
For currencies the question is narrower, is this economy attracting capital or losing it? Everything below is a way of answering that.
Chapter 03 of 17
Interest Rates
The single biggest driver in FX. A central bank raising rates makes its currency more attractive to hold, because money parked there earns more. Cutting does the opposite.
Markets trade the expectation, not the announcement. By the time a rate decision is published, the anticipated move is usually already in the price, what moves the market is the surprise.
Chapter 04 of 17
Money Supply
The total amount of money circulating in an economy. Expand it faster than the economy grows and each unit is worth a little less; contract it and the opposite happens.
This is why quantitative easing and tightening cycles matter to currency traders long after the headlines have moved on.
Chapter 05 of 17
Inflation
Inflation erodes purchasing power, so persistent high inflation usually weakens a currency, unless the central bank responds aggressively enough with rates to more than offset it. Anyone who has watched the naira or the cedi over the past few years has traded this relationship whether they meant to or not.
Both Nigeria and Ghana have lived through this dynamic recently, which makes the CPI print one of the most tradable scheduled events on the local calendar.
Chapter 06 of 17
Economic Release
Scheduled data, GDP, employment, inflation, retail sales, PMI, arrives at a published time with a published forecast. Three numbers matter: the previous figure, the market forecast, and the actual result.
The size of the reaction is driven by the gap between forecast and actual, not by whether the number was good or bad in isolation.
Chapter 07 of 17
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis reads historical price and volume to estimate probable future price. It rests on one assumption: everything known about an asset is already reflected in its price, so the price action itself is the most efficient summary of the fundamentals.
It does not predict. It identifies levels where the balance of probability shifts, and, more usefully, where you were wrong.
Chapter 08 of 17
Support & Resistance
Support is a level where buying has repeatedly overcome selling and price has stopped falling. Resistance is the mirror image on the way up.
The levels matter because other traders can see them too, which makes them self-reinforcing. When support finally breaks it commonly becomes resistance on the retest, the single most useful pattern a beginner can learn.
Chapter 09 of 17
Trendlines & Channels
A trendline joins successive higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs in a downtrend. Two points define it; the third touch confirms it.
Draw a parallel line off the opposite extreme and you have a channel, which frames both where to enter and where the move is likely to run out of room.
Chapter 10 of 17
Indicators
An indicator is a calculation performed on price or volume and drawn on the chart. It adds no new information, it reorganises what is already there so a pattern becomes visible.
Two families matter, and mixing them up is a common and expensive mistake.
Chapter 11 of 17
Lagging Indicators
Lagging indicators confirm a move that has already begun: moving averages, MACD, most trend tools. They are reliable in a trending market and useless in a range, where they whipsaw.
Their value is confirmation, not entry. If you need to know whether a trend is intact, this is the family to use.
Chapter 12 of 17
Leading Indicators
Leading indicators attempt to signal a move before it happens, RSI, Stochastics and other oscillators. They shine in range-bound conditions and fail badly in strong trends, where an asset can stay "overbought" for weeks.
The practical rule: use leading indicators for timing inside a range, lagging ones for staying with a trend.
Chapter 13 of 17
Bollinger Bands
A moving average with two bands plotted a set number of standard deviations above and below it. The bands widen when volatility rises and contract when it falls.
A prolonged squeeze, bands unusually tight, often precedes a sharp expansion. The bands say nothing about direction, only about how much movement to expect.
Chapter 14 of 17
Fibonacci Sequence
Retracement levels drawn at 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% of a prior move, used to anticipate how deep a pullback might run before the trend resumes.
There is no mechanism forcing price to respect these levels; they work to the extent that enough participants watch them. Treat them as areas of interest, never as guarantees.
Chapter 15 of 17
Chart Patterns
Recurring shapes that reflect the same crowd behaviour repeating: head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, triangles, flags and wedges.
Each carries an implied target, usually the height of the pattern projected from the breakout, and, more importantly, a clear invalidation level.
Chapter 16 of 17
Candlesticks
A candlestick shows four prices in one mark: open, high, low and close. The body is the distance between open and close; the wicks show how far price travelled and was rejected.
Single candles such as the pin bar or engulfing pattern are most reliable when they form at a level that already matters, support, resistance or a trendline. In isolation they are noise.
Chapter 17 of 17
Conclusion
Neither approach is a crystal ball. Fundamentals frame the direction; technicals define the entry, the stop and the target.
The traders who last are not the ones with the best indicator settings. They are the ones who decided in advance where they would be wrong, which is the subject of the next module.